The Draft ModelPoints per minute
Stats
No
Claim
Higher points per 36 minutes predict more career points per game than raw pre-draft points.
Test
Drafted players, 1947-2019. Top points-per-36 third n = 57. Bottom points-per-36 third n = 61. Outcomes: career PTS, REB, AST, BLK, and STL per game, and career seasons. Compared inside the same age band (under 19.5, 19.5 to 20.5, 20.5 to 21.5, 21.5 to 22.5, 22.5 and up), height half (cut at 79 inches), and pre-draft points third (cuts at 14.7 and 18.4). 5 of 29 bands had at least 5 players on each side.
Result
PTS +1.1 (n.s.) · REB +0.1 (n.s.) · AST -0.4 (n.s.) · BLK -0.1 (n.s.) · STL +0.0 (n.s.) · YRS +0.1 (n.s.)
Verdict
Not supported. Feeds the player model: No.