The Draft ModelFreshman scoring
Stats
No
Claim
Higher freshman points per game predict more career points per game.
Test
Drafted players, 1947-2019. Top freshman-points third n = 54. Bottom freshman-points third n = 47. Outcomes: career PTS, REB, AST, BLK, and STL per game, and career seasons. Compared inside the same age band (under 19.5, 19.5 to 20.5, 20.5 to 21.5, 21.5 to 22.5, 22.5 and up), height third (cuts at 77 and 81 inches), and pre-draft points third (cuts at 14.7 and 18.4). 7 of 36 bands had at least 5 players on each side.
Result
PTS +0.3 (n.s.) · REB +0.2 (n.s.) · AST -0.1 (n.s.) · BLK +0.0 (n.s.) · STL -0.1 (n.s.) · YRS +0.5 (n.s.)
Verdict
Not supported. Feeds the player model: No.