The Draft ModelPre-draft scoring
Stats
PTS, REB, AST, STL, YRS
Claim
Higher pre-draft points per game predict more career points, rebounds, assists, and steals per game and more career seasons.
Test
Drafted players, 1947-2019. Top pre-draft points third n = 485. Bottom pre-draft points third n = 508. Outcomes: career PTS, REB, AST, BLK, and STL per game, and career seasons. Compared inside the same age band (under 19.5, 19.5 to 20.5, 20.5 to 21.5, 21.5 to 22.5, 22.5 and up) and height third (cuts at 77 and 80 inches).
Result
PTS +3.9 (p<0.001) · REB +0.9 (p<0.001) · AST +0.5 (p<0.001) · BLK +0.0 (n.s.) · STL +0.2 (p 0.001) · YRS +2.2 (p<0.001)
Verdict
Confirmed. Feeds the player model: Yes.