The Draft ModelHigh school scoring
Stats
PTS, REB
Claim
More high school points per game predict more career points and rebounds per game.
Test
Drafted players, 1947-2019. Top high-school-points third n = 171. Bottom high-school-points third n = 171. Outcomes: career PTS, REB, AST, BLK, and STL per game, and career seasons. Compared inside the same age band (under 19.5, 19.5 to 20.5, 20.5 to 21.5, 21.5 to 22.5, 22.5 and up) and height third (cuts at 77 and 80 inches).
Result
PTS +3.3 (p<0.001) · REB +0.8 (p 0.001) · AST +0.4 (n.s.) · BLK +0.1 (n.s.) · STL +0.1 (n.s.) · YRS +1.6 (n.s.)
Verdict
Confirmed. Feeds the player model: Yes.