The Draft ModelLong arms
Stats
REB, BLK
Claim
A longer wingspan predicts more career rebounds and blocks per game.
Test
Drafted players, 1947-2019. Top wingspan third n = 59. Bottom wingspan third n = 34. Outcomes: career PTS, REB, AST, BLK, and STL per game, and career seasons. Compared inside the same age band (under 19.5, 19.5 to 20.5, 20.5 to 21.5, 21.5 to 22.5, 22.5 and up), height third (cuts at 77 and 81 inches), and pre-draft points half (cut at 16.6). 5 of 30 bands had at least 5 players on each side.
Result
PTS -0.3 (n.s.) · REB +1.4 (p 0.021) · AST -0.3 (n.s.) · BLK +0.3 (p<0.001) · STL +0.0 (n.s.) · YRS +0.7 (n.s.)
Verdict
Confirmed. Feeds the player model: Yes.