The Draft ModelFreshmen and seniors
Stats
No
Claim
Freshmen have more career points per game than seniors.
Test
Drafted players, 1947-2019. Freshmen n = 169. Seniors n = 767. Outcomes: career PTS, REB, AST, BLK, and STL per game, and career seasons. Compared inside the same age band (under 19.5, 19.5 to 20.5, 20.5 to 21.5, 21.5 to 22.5, 22.5 and up), height third (cuts at 77 and 81 inches), and pre-draft points third (cuts at 14.7 and 18.4). Bands with fewer than 5 players on either side are omitted.
Result
No band had at least 5 players on each side.
Verdict
Not testable. Feeds the player model: No.