The Draft ModelTurnovers
Stats
AST
Claim
Higher pre-draft turnovers predict more career assists per game.
Test
Drafted players, 1947-2019. Top turnover third n = 328. Bottom turnover third n = 428. Outcomes: career PTS, REB, AST, BLK, and STL per game, and career seasons. Compared inside the same age band (under 19.5, 19.5 to 20.5, 20.5 to 21.5, 21.5 to 22.5, 22.5 and up), height third (cuts at 77 and 81 inches), and pre-draft points third (cuts at 14.7 and 18.4). 27 of 45 bands had at least 5 players on each side.
Result
PTS -0.4 (n.s.) · REB -0.2 (n.s.) · AST +0.4 (p<0.001) · BLK +0.0 (n.s.) · STL +0.0 (n.s.) · YRS -0.4 (n.s.)
Verdict
Confirmed. Feeds the player model: Yes.