Steals

Stats

AST, STL, YRS

Claim

Higher pre-draft steals predict more career assists and steals per game and more career seasons.

Test

Drafted players, 1947-2019. Top steal third n = 279. Bottom steal third n = 195. Outcomes: career PTS, REB, AST, BLK, and STL per game, and career seasons. Compared inside the same age band (under 19.5, 19.5 to 20.5, 20.5 to 21.5, 21.5 to 22.5, 22.5 and up), height third (cuts at 77 and 81 inches), and pre-draft points third (cuts at 14.7 and 18.4). 13 of 45 bands had at least 5 players on each side.

Result

PTS +1.7 (n.s.) · REB +0.4 (n.s.) · AST +1.0 (p<0.001) · BLK +0.1 (n.s.) · STL +0.4 (p<0.001) · YRS +2.5 (p<0.001)

Verdict

Confirmed. Feeds the player model: Yes.

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