The Draft ModelScoring and program strength
Stats
No
Claim
Among players with 20 or more pre-draft points, more prior draftees from the same school predict more career points per game.
Test
Drafted players, 1947-2019. Top prior-draftee third n = 83. Bottom prior-draftee third n = 107. Outcomes: career PTS, REB, AST, BLK, and STL per game, and career seasons. Compared inside the same age band (under 19.5, 19.5 to 20.5, 20.5 to 21.5, 21.5 to 22.5, 22.5 and up) and height third (cuts at 77 and 80 inches). 7 of 15 bands had at least 5 players on each side.
Result
PTS -0.2 (n.s.) · REB -0.9 (n.s.) · AST -0.1 (n.s.) · BLK -0.1 (n.s.) · STL +0.1 (n.s.) · YRS +1.2 (n.s.)
Verdict
Not supported. Feeds the player model: No.