The Draft ModelProgram strength
Stats
AST, YRS
Claim
More prior draftees from the same school predict more career assists per game and more career seasons.
Test
Drafted players, 1947-2019. Top prior-draftee third n = 935. Bottom prior-draftee third n = 1,124. Outcomes: career PTS, REB, AST, BLK, and STL per game, and career seasons. Compared inside the same age band (under 19.5, 19.5 to 20.5, 20.5 to 21.5, 21.5 to 22.5, 22.5 and up) and height third (cuts at 77 and 80 inches). 11 of 15 bands had at least 5 players on each side.
Result
PTS +0.1 (n.s.) · REB -0.9 (p<0.001) · AST +0.3 (p 0.012) · BLK -0.1 (n.s.) · STL +0.1 (n.s.) · YRS +1.6 (p<0.001)
Verdict
Confirmed. Feeds the player model: Yes.